Just as real life managers rely on information provided by technologies such as Opta or miCoach, it seems the Football Manager player is becoming increasingly dependant on the visual tools of the match analysis screen to help identify the strengths and weaknesses of their (or their opponent’s) tactics.

And there is a wealth of information available here: shots, scoring chances, passes, tackles, interceptions, aerial duals, runs, crosses – all of which are broken down depending on the outcome – not forgetting the heat and average position maps, designed to help us understand player movement and positioning – and yet I have found myself wanting more…

PASSES RECEIVED

The above diagram – generated using FourFourTwo magazine’s excellent app Statzone – illustrates both the passes made and passes received by Napoli forward Ezequiel Lavezzi during his team’s Champions League tie against Manchester City. The differences between the two maps is subtle but telling nonetheless.

We can clearly see that the majority of passes aimed at Lavezzi found him out on the left wing, but his attempted passes are spread more evenly across the final third. This indicates that the player was used to stretch play – stationed wide left he would come inside only after collecting the ball, dragging his marker with him and creating space for the overlapping fullback.

This helps demonstrate how the additional analysis of passes received – used together with other data captured by Football Manager – could be instrumental in determining the approach employed by a team.

PASSING INFLUENCE

By looking beyond the players to successfully complete their passes and considering also the targeted recipients it’s possible to build a picture of the most influential players in a match – best illustrated by another Statszone “tool”, the influence map.

We studied both passes completed and passes received from a Football Manager game between AC Milan and Arsenal, plotted as a bar chart the results look something like this:

Believe it or not the data illustrates how both teams the used the flanks to good effect – AC Milan played much of the game using a 4-3-1-2 formation, Antonini and Abate in the fullback positions were encouraged forward and (from the passes received chart) we can see how often they were on the end of a teammate’s pass. Up front Pato also spent much of his time in the channels and was his side’s highest receiver of the ball.

Arsenal (playing 4-3-3) also stretched the play, albeit with wingers. On the left Diego Perotti was the Gunners’ most sought after player, whilst on the right Gervinho and Theo Walcott (the latter replacing the former in the second half) accounted for another 12% of passes received.

A bar chart isn’t really the best way to display this information, but if we took the same data -together with the average player positions – and plotted it into an “influence map” then we arrive at something like this:

A simple but effective diagram – the larger the player’s name the greater the influence he had on the match as both passer and receiver.

PASSES BETWEEN PLAYERS

We’ve already seen how identifying passes received could help us better understand the intricacy of play, but what if we also had data of which players exchanged passes?

By carefully studying our Milan-Arsenal game I was able to record both the passer and recipient of every pass. Putting this data into a matrix helps identify the passing relationships between different players:

…but there must be a better way of displaying this data, right? There is, and the idea came from this article on MLSSoccer.com. Firstly we plotted the average position of every player, next we indicated the distance covered by size of the player’s marker and finally we illustrated the number of passes exchanged by connecting each player with a straight line – the thicker the line the greater the number of passes exchanged. From our AC Milan-Arsenal match we ended up with the resulting maps:

The manner each team exploited the wings is clearly demonstrated by thickness of the passing lines to and from the fullbacks (AC Milan) and the wingers (Arsenal).

IN CONCLUSION

We first started looking at the additional data behind passes received and began looking at passing relationships after writing a few words for fellow bloggers Push Them Wide, but gathering the necessary data was a painstakingly slow affair – a case of watching each and every pass played over a game.

However, I firmly believe that the data could prove to be incredibly useful in determining the patterns of play before setting your tactics for that next game. It needn’t be in the formats that I have used above, but if those clever chaps at Sports Interactive could just find a way to provide us with the “passes received” and “passes between” data then I am sure there would be quite a few budding tacticians out there who would be eternally grateful?

There are five nations in the UK & Ireland region, often referred to as the “home” nations, they are England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland & Ireland. For the purposes of our study we have used five separate Football Manger game-saves, one in each of these nations and each spanning a five year period.

YOUTH RATING

The Youth Rating is used to help determine the quality of newgens produced by each Football Manager nation, it generally reflects the national team’s standing in world football. When we plot the youth rating of all 51 “playable” nations into a simple line graph we see that England makes an appearance high up the chart, whilst Scotland, Ireland, Northern Ireland and Wales all find themselves in the lower half.

Of course, it would be over simplistic to suggest that a nation with a good youth rating will generate hundreds of top class newgens. In truth few world class newgens are created every season and there are a several other factors that help determine where you will find them – not least the facilities and recruitment policies of that nations club sides.

Below you will find two charts, the first depicts the number of newgens generated during our study, the second the percentage of those newgens possessing greater potential ability.

Interestingly, Wales produced a decent percentage of “above average” or “good” newgens (potential ability between 121 and 160, or 161 and 200) despite possessing the lowest youth rating of all the home nations. But why is this?

The chart below shows the percentage of newgens with potential ability of 120 or better created by clubs based in each of the home nations. We can see that Welsh clubs produced the lowest percentage of high potential newgens – this is to be expected given the weak reputation of the Welsh Premier League and poor facilities at these clubs.

But when we include high potential newgens created outside of their home nation we find that Wales’ percentage increases significantly. Whilst the clubs plying their trade in the Welsh Premier League only managed to produce one above average newgen, another 19 started life at clubs based in the English leagues.

The appearance of a Welsh club (Swansea) playing in the English Leagues amongst the top newgen producers further illustrates this effect:

But if you are aiming to build a world beating team from one of the smaller UK nations then you may want to keep an eye out for players with dual nationality, something that has helped those national sides well in the past:

PREFERRED POSITIONS AND MENTALITY TRAITS

When the game was released last Autumn, Miles Jacobson told us how Football Manager 2012 would employ “country based positional traits” when generating newgens – put simply newgens of a particular nation would favour certain playing positions in keeping with their footballing heritage.

In our previous post we took a look at the playing positions preferred by Scandinavian newgens and we learnt that the most popular positions were that of striker and winger, so what did our study of British and Irish newgens reveal?

Initially we were disappointed with the results – it seemed that an obvious trend favouring strikers and wingers was emerging and the positional footprints for our British and Irish nations were very similar to those their Scandinavian counterparts.

This led us to review the data in a different way and so we focused our attention on the playing positions preferred by those newgens with potential ability of 120 or higher. The footprints did then start to take on a different shape, although there remains a strong preference for attacking players – the greatest changes were seen in Ireland and Northern Ireland, displaying a fondness for flanking positions and strikers respectively.

The other new feature to affect Football Manager 2012 newgens was the introduction of national personality types – essentially the game uses a “template” to manage the newgen’s personality traits based on their nationality. A quick look in the editor reveals that Wales, Northern Ireland and Ireland have not been given one of these personality templates – although I’m not sure why this is the case? However, by considering the Scottish and English templates we can reasonably expect the typical British newgen to have a balanced personality albeit they may struggle to fit in when playing abroad.

COST

Just as we ended our look at Scandinavian newgens, we’ll round off today’s post by considering the cost of the UK & Ireland’s brightest young stars. Many commentators on the English game have blamed the rising cost of exciting British talent as the reason English clubs employ a high number of foreign players – our study of Football Manager’s British newgens seems to support those sentiments. You can expect an English player with high potential ability to set you back a seven figure sum, while even Scottish and Irish players cost more than the best Scandinavian talents (whose average sale value was £134,000).

The high cost of Welsh newgens can be attributed to the fact that all but one of these players started life in the English League system and, therefore, are affected by an over-inflated transfer market.

And that brings our review of British and Irish newgens to a close, much was as expected but it was interesting to see how well Wales came out of the study – gwych!

We’ll be back soon with more but in the meantime if you have any questions, observations or comments please leave them below.

When it comes to two legged cup ties is there any advantage in being drawn home or away for the opening game – to find out we took a look at the way forty-four ties played out in the UEFA Champions League and Europa League over one Football Manager season.

THE MATCH RESULTS

The first evidence that the draw could be beneficial in determining a team’s fortunes is found when we look at the sides who progressed into the next round:

Of the 44 teams to emerge victorious, 29 were drawn away in the first leg – that’s over 65%. This is also reflected in the results from each tie with the away side claiming a win in 34% of first leg games compared to only 25% of second leg matches.

AWAY GOALS

In the event of an aggregate draw away goals are used to decide a winner, so scoring at your opponent’s ground can be critical, but in our Football Manager study it appears harder to score away in the return leg of a tie. The teams drawn away in the first leg scored more goals than those drawn at home, but in the second leg this trend is not only reversed but the gap between home and away goals scored is far greater too.

When a team scores away in the opening leg their chances of winning the tie increase dramatically, 83.9% of teams who scored away from home in the first leg went on to win the tie, however, scoring away from home in the second leg has a lesser effect with only 62.5% of those teams progressing to the next round.

A word of warning though, 76.9% of away teams who failed to score in their opening game ended up being knocked out of the competition.

IMPORTANT PLAYER ATTRIBUTES

The study also suggests that teams who play the first leg away and the second leg at home stand a better chance of turning the tie in their favour. The pie chart below shows that no team drawn away in the first leg failed to progress after winning that game and that 11% (5) went on to win the tie despite suffering a first leg defeat.

What is it that enables a team to secure this change in fortune, is it simply down to home support in the return leg or can we learn anything from the player attributes? When the chips are down it would be reasonable to assume that particular mental traits could come into play, namely “important matches” and “pressure”.

The chart below takes a closer look at the average attribute scores for “important matches” and “pressure” of the starting eleven in each of the five matches to see a first leg deficit overturned – the winning teams are marked in green, the losing teams in red. It’s difficult to see any real correlation between the average “important matches” attribute and the final result, however, it is possible that teams with better “pressure” ratings stand a greater chance of success when their backs are against the wall.

So what have we learnt from the study and how should you approach a two legged cup tie in Football Manager?

• If you are drawn at home in the opening leg of your tie then keeping a clean sheet is of the utmost importance, it is better to win 1-0 than 4-3 as you can expect your opponents to be a tougher proposition in their own stadium.
• But whatever you do don’t lose at home, the odds of you turning the result around in the second leg are long!
• If you are lucky enough to be drawn away, however, then go for goals. Unless you are on the receiving end of a real thumping there is every chance you will get the required result in the next game with home support behind you.
• If you are down after the first leg then look out for your opponent sitting back and take advantage of their cautiousness, make the most of playing in front of your own fans and take the game to the opposition.
• Look to players who are better able to cope in pressure situations, these can be identified as having “spirited” or “resilient” personalities.

Commonly referred to as “newgens” (newly generated players), these youngsters are added to the game during pre-season. Some newgens will be destined to reach the very top of the game, others will undoubtedly fall into lower league obscurity – so it makes sense to know what to expect from your chosen nations and how to get the best from your scouting network.

Here at The Boy Done Good we will be taking a detailed look at newgens from across the Football Manager globe, from the backstreets of Buenos Aires to the playing fields of Hackney Marshes, our first stop will be Scandinavia.

The game begins with five playable leagues based in Scandinavia and in an effort to understand the type, quality and frequency of newgens from this region we’ve studied five individual Football Manager game-saves, each with a different nation and each spanning five game years:

Denmark (large database= 11,000 players)
Finland (10,000)
Iceland (8,000)
Norway (10,000)
Sweden (12,000)

YOUTH RATING

Each Football Manager nation is given a “Youth Rating” in the game of between 1 and 200, this is used to help determine the quality of newgens introduced. Generally speaking, there is a correlation between a nation’s standing in the footballing world and their youth rating and below we’ve charted the youth rating of all 51 playable nations. We can see that all five Scandinavian countries make an appearance in the lower half of the chart.

So how does this youth rating affect the quantity and quality of newgens created? Over each of the corresponding game-saves we found the following number of newgens created:

But how many of these youngsters can we expect to make their mark on the game? We didn’t see any of the Scandinavian nations produce a newgen with a potential ability* score higher than 176 (out of a maximum 200).

*Potential ability defines how good that player could possibly be given the right environment, facilities, training and tutorage.

If we were to break potential ability down into five broad categories – (0-40 poor, 41-80 below average, 80-120 average, 121-160 above average and 161-200 good) – then here is how each nation faired in producing “above average” newgens as a percentage:

With the game generating such low numbers of high quality youngsters – and several clubs on the lookout for this talent – the above data illustrates just how hard it can be to find the best newgens available whatever nation you are playing in.

You could do worse than keep your eye on the following Scandinavian clubs, they each produced a fair number of the “above average” newgens found in our experiment:

PREFERRED POSITIONS & PERSONALITY TRAITS

There have also been improvements in the way that the newgens are generated, with country based positional “traits” now being used. In Brazil, for example, it’s rare that they have natural wingers in real life, with those players more likely to be wing backs, so you’ll see less Brazilian newgen wingers, and more Brazilian newgen wing backs.
The same can also be said of a players mental attributes. Players in Brazil, due to the way they grow up playing the game, are more likely to have flair. Players in Spain are more likely to play a short passing game. All of these traits are now reflected better in game.

Miles Jacobson, Sports Interactive

When Miles Jacobson introduced Football Manager 2012 through a series of blogs this statement caught the imagination – the idea that the game would create newgens that mirrored the traits of their fore-fathers. In our experiment we found that newgens from Scaninavia favoured the positions of winger, striker and centre-back – quite possibly a fair reflection of the direct nature historically preferred by these nations.

As we expand our experiment over the coming weeks, it will be interesting to observe how newgens from other regions differ.

Sports Interactive also promised us that a newgen’s mental attributes would be managed by the game, to achieve this they gave each nation a “template” for the following mental attributes: Ambition, Adaptability, Controversy, Loyalty, Pressure, Professionalism, Sportsmanship and Temperament.

For our Scandinavian newgens the personality trait templates are illustrated below by way of a graph, as is the “typical” template for players from this region.

By taking a closer look at our experiment’s top five Danish and Swedish newgens, measuring their mental attributes against the relevant templates, we can see that this feature appears to work fairly well.  By and large the Danish newgens display poor ambition, controversy and pressure attributes but higher loyalty and sportsmanship – their Swedish counterparts follow a similar pattern, although there is marked difference between their individual temperament ratings and that expected from the template. There is some variation but remember this feature is not expected to reproduce an exact model!

Therefore, we can reasonably expect our Scandinavian newgens to be relatively unambitious, fairly adaptable, unlikely to cause rifts in the squad, loyal, sporting and quite professional – but they may struggle in pressure situations (such as a title run in).

COST

Of course, finding a hot prospect for your club is one thing but if you are on a tight budget then the potential cost of a transfer will be an important consideration.

Traditionally club sides from Britain and Holland, amongst others, have looked to the Scandinavian transfer market for cheap, but talented young players.  The findings of our experiment helps illustrate why, the average cost of an “above average” newgen varied from £70,536 (Sweden) to £237,983 (Norway) – hardly sums that will have your chairman breaking into a sweat!

As our series of experiments continue it will be interesting to compare the sale value of high potential newgens from different regions.

That concludes our findings from the region that brought us Fjords, Vikings and Ikea – together with a few decent young Football Manager players! We will be back soon with more newgen data, our next stop will be in the UK & Ireland.

THE FORMATION

So far, so ordinary – my base formation is a simple 4-4-2, I find this allows the team to defend effectively as a unit whilst affording the players space during the transition in play from defence to attack.

At this stage it’s important for me to recognize that the formation is of secondary importance to the overall philosophy of the tactic. As you will see, pressing and closing down our opponents in certain areas of the pitch is a key feature of my approach and I want to limit the opposing team’s passing options. However, if they are allowed to have a man spare in any area of the park then naturally this will be more difficult to achieve – therefore it I find it important to make changes based on the opposition’s formation.

THE PHILOSPOHY

I’ve set out to create a tactic that will (1) force the opposition into making errors whilst we are defending, and (2) sustain pressure high up the pitch in attack.  Therefore, I shall be paying particular attention to two key areas of the pitch where I want my players to intercept passes and overturn possession.

Interceptions made in the “blue zone” largely come from direct balls collected by the defenders and from enforced errors by the opposition midfield, effective since winning the ball back deep allows the players the time necessary to regroup before taking the ball forward again.

In the second key area (the “red zone”) interceptions more often than not come about from hurried clearances, as a result of intense attacking pressure. With the ball won this high up the pitch the attack can be restarted quickly and the opposition are forced to sit deep as your players tighten the screw.

To force interceptions in these areas I know the opposing players must be hurried in possession, to achieve this my players will need to press the ball intently whilst keeping space between the lines to a minimum.

THE DEFENSIVE LINE

If you aim to reduce the available space between your defence and your midfield there are two logical paths you can take – have your midfielders drop deep or push your defenders up. Each comes with it’s own set of problems – if your midfield sits deep then this will open up the space in front of them and potentially leave your attack isolated, but if your defenders push up then your team will be prone to the counter attack. Either way your going to be looking for players with good mental attributes and high stamina.

Since Sporting Clube are one of the more proficient sides in La Liga Sagres I opt for the higher defensive line, employing defenders with enough pace to get back should the opposition break through our ranks. To help keep the defensive and midfield lines close together I’ve set their mentality apart – the central defenders on a higher and more offensive mentality, the central midfielders slightly less so.

The next important piece of the tactical jigsaw is to set the team’s pressing approach. Choosing to deploy an offside trap I need the central defenders to maintain a rigid line, so my attention turns to the midfield and fullback positions.

This combination of pressing and reducing space is critical in forcing the opposition into making errors. In the example below we can see how the Sporting fullback and central defender are both closing in on the Porto striker who has the ball, meanwhile his passing options are limited by some tight marking.

With the striker hurried into making a rash pass the ball is easily intercepted by the Sporting winger and defence is turned into attack in an instant.

The graphic below illustrates just how effective Sporting’s game plan was in closing down the Porto players and forcing the interception, helping them to a crucial 4-0 win.

RECYCLING POSSESSION IN ATTACK

Earlier I made mention of a lower mentality setting for the central midfielders, not only does this keep the lines between defence and midfield tight but it also helps the team keep pressure applied further up the pitch.

How can two deep lying midfielders put the opposing defence under pressure? By holding their position in midfield these two players are in the ideal position to intercept loose balls resulting from defensive clearances, they are also perfectly placed to recycle possession if my forwards are finding it difficult to get past their markers.

To ensure that the gap between midfield and attack isn’t turned into an insurmountable chasm one of the forwards, in the trequartista mould, is asked to drop off whilst the right midfielder comes across to support him in his playmaking duties – 4-4-2 almost becomes 4-2-3-1 in attack, the left winger pushing on to get crosses into the box and the right wingback advancing on the overlap.

Through some intelligent pressing, the area between midfield and attack becomes a problem area for the opposition with players quick to pounce on any wayward passes.

When the ball is lost the only forward player not asked to close down the opposition is the striker playing in “the hole” – as a playmaker he needs to be able to roam freely in this area of the pitch searching for space, ready to launch an attack once possession is regained.

Against opposition that defend in numbers the temptation is to push the midfield forward in support of the forwards, but we can see from the example below how a midfield who sit deep, sweep up loose balls and recycle possession can cause just as many (if not more) problems for your opponent.

Sporting have the ball to the left of goal but find passing options limited due to the number of Marseille players who have dropped back into defence – it isn’t long before the ball is lost to bone crunching tackle. The loose ball, however, is collected by the Sporting midfielder who has resisted the temptation to break forward. He quickly restarts the attack, one which this time leads to Sporting’s third goal in a 3-0 win.

WEAKNESSES & CONCLUSION

With a high defensive line your team is always going to be susceptible against opponents who are adept in the counter attack, whilst setting your players up to press the ball and regain possession through interceptions relies on your opponents making weak passes – when faced with a team whose passing is exemplary you can leave yourself somewhat exposed (as I found out to my cost against Barcelona in the Champions League semi-finals!) But then no single tactic works against every possible opponent.

If you needed any further proof that interceptions offer a more effective way of defending than tackling then consider that my Sporting team went on to lift the league trophy after suffering only one defeat and conceding only five goals – this with an average of 35 interceptions per game but a tackle completion rate barely over 50%.

Firstly let’s take a look at the physical qualities that should be useful in winning headers – namely a player’s height and their ability to jump off the ground.

A player who isn’t particularly tall can still be a threat in the air if they are blessed with a natural ability to jump, consider Everton’s Tim Cahill – a player who is renown for scoring with his head despite being only 5’ 10”.

In the game Football Manager, however, there appears to be an obvious correlation between a players height and their ability to jump – in fact, I found only two Premier League players who were over 6’ yet had an attribute score of less than 11 for Jumping.

I can’t be sure, but the above data leads me to believe that height isn’t a direct factor in whether a player wins a headed ball – rather that their height has already been considered as in calculating their jumping ability.

So what of a player’s heading technique? Against a player with good jumping and positioning this attribute is unlikely to determine whether an aerial challenge is won but it will help ensure that if headed then the direction the ball is sent in will present a more positive outcome.

Using data from one entire Premier League season, the line graph below illustrates that there is a more positive correlation between the number of aerial duels won and a player’s Jumping attribute than with their Heading attribute – put simply the Jumping trend-line is steeper than the Heading trend-line, this shows that the higher the Jumping attribute the greater number of headers won, whilst there is a similar trend for players with a higher Heading attribute it is less pronounced.

This helps explain why Football Manager defines Heading as an essential attribute for Advanced Forwards but not Jumping – whilst a good target man needs both. This difference should be taken into consideration when determining the type of delivery being used.

When it comes to the mental attributes that can be helpful in the air only Positioning shows a similar relationship with headers won as Jumping and Heading do.

If Jumping, Heading and Positioning can all be considered important attributes in winning headers then a player who can scores highly in all three categories will literally rise head and shoulders above everyone else, but how do the other combinations of these attributes fair?

NB: for the purposes of this article a high attribute score is seen as one of 16 or above.

The idea of using the Venn diagram above came from the zonalmarking.net article I referenced earlier, and in the same piece Michael Cox defined each type of player – I think it would be useful if I attempted to do the same using my analysis of the Football Manager game.

TYPE A: An out and out jumper, or tall player, with average or poor heading technique. This player will cause defenders a problem, especially if they also possess a strong physique, but their headers will often lack direction.

Examples: David Luiz, Peter Crouch.

TYPE B: This player’s ability to read the game means that he will often find himself in the right place at the right time, invaluable defensively and presents a constant threat further forward. But faced with a taller opponent he may struggle to overcome the height difference.

Examples: Ledley King, Dirk Kuyt

TYPE C: A great heading technique means that if a clean connection is made the ball is likely to find a teammate or the back of the net. A lack of good Jumping and Positioning attributes, however, means that this type of player makes for a poor defender but as a striker he will feed off low driven crosses and corners to the near post.

Examples: Micah Richards, Didier Drogba

TYPE D: Jumping and Positioning are strong qualities for a commanding centre-half and at set pieces this player will always present a threat although he is as likely to find row Z as he is the goal.

Example: Rio Ferdinand

TYPE E: Like Type D, this player can cause problems for the opposition at either end of the pitch, poor Jumping may be a problem when pitched against the tallest opponents but good positional sense and heading technique can more than adequately compensate for this.

Example: John Terry

TYPE F: A player that will thrive on lofted balls to the far post and who has the technique to make a good delivery count, but poor Positioning may result in them being caught cold when defending set pieces.

Example: Edin Dzeko

TYPE G: all of the above with none of the shortcomings! Qualities usually found in the best central defenders.

Example: Nemanja Vidic

Of course, several other factors help determine who will win a ball in the air – for example, the initial delivery needs to be good in order to give the attacking player the best possible chance of converting a cross or a corner which explains why defenders win more headers than forwards – but identifying the inherit qualities of your players and then playing to their strengths will help you get ahead!

As the game has developed with teams like Barcelona hitting so many passes, and at pace, modern defending has had to become more ‘ball-focused’ – that is to say the very best defensive units look to close down space and force their opponents into making a difficult pass. They do so knowing that the increased the likelihood of a miss placed pass will lead to an interception and, thereby, a turn-around in possession.

The use of covering defenders has also become more prevalent. Should an opponent look to run at their marker a good defender will show them outside or onto their weaker foot, holding them at bay until support arrives.

All this is a far cry from the age of the enforcer and a predilection for man-to-man marking. Former Liverpool manager Bob Paisley once said “It’s no use winning the ball if you end up on your backside” – he knew of all the likely outcomes following a tackle ultimately only one could benefit his players.

If a player goes to ground then there is the risk that his challenge will be mis-timed, failing to win the ball or conceding a foul – either way the opposition retain possession. Even if the defender’s challenge is good, and the ball is won, there is still a chance that it will run free to another opposition player.

So if we were to study the immediate outcomes following a tackle in a game Football Manager what would we find?

You can see from the charts above that in a game between Blackburn Rovers and Wolverhampton Wanderers around 45% of tackles led to possession being won, the rest of the time the ball ended up at the feet of an opponent or out of play.

Compare this to the outcome following interceptions in the same game and we find that the defending team gained possession in over 73% of these occasions – a significant increase, and if we study another game (Tottenham versus Manchester City below) we find little deviation in the results.

And when we factor in the number of times a challenge resulted in a foul and a free-kick (or penalty!) for the opposition the figures of possession gained are even lower, with the ball being won cleanly on between 30 and 37 percent of occasions (see below).

Now consider that all of the data above excludes missed tackles and missed interceptions, it depicts the outcomes of successful tackles and interceptions only. On average the four teams completed 96% of their interceptions but just a third of their tackles – this means less than 30% of all attempted tackles resulted in the defending team gaining possession!

So how do we set-up our Football Manager teams to defend in a more modern, ball-focused manner? Defenders who can read the game are a must have and this requires high mental attributes – particularly anticipation, concentration and positioning. Then there are the tools of modern defending we can employ – pressing high up the pitch, covering defenders, zonal marking, a more rigid philosophy and cautious tackling. Conversely, you may want to avoid very high back lines, pressing central defenders and heavy tackling.

It may take a little while to get things right but the statistics show that if you aim to play a possession based game you would do well to consider your defensive approach.

This article as with so many others that I have written has come after I found inspiration in the ‘real’ football world. Where though did I get the inspiration? From Michael Cox or Jonathan Wilson? Perhaps from Jose Mourinho, Andre Villas Boas or Marcelo Biesla? Well not quite. The inspiration for this article actually comes from the tactical lessons of one Harry Redknapp…

On his arrival at Spurs from Real Madrid Rafael Van Der Vaart is said to have been stunned at the lack of tactical preparation carried out by Redknapp and his staff. He couldn’t quite believe that the extent of the tactical instructions handed out before the match was to ‘enjoy yourself’. This is an approach that has earned Redknapp a certain amount of criticism from those that have come to view tactics and systems as the be all and end all of football success. Given the form of Spurs over the last two or three years though maybe we need to take another more in depth look at why they are performing so well? The answer as I see it is that they have mastered the asymmetrical symmetrical system that allows each individual player to maximise their talent to the overall benefit of the team as a whole.

This is a way of setting up your team and system that can easily be transferred to FM as I can show using Spurs as the ideal example.

THE STARTING SYSTEM

Now to start making a little more sense. As you can see I have split the pitch vertically down the centre with the exception of the AMC and ST. Each of the other players has an opposite which lends us the symmetry although the players on the left will be mechanised to play and act differently from those on the right. The AMC is the only player that can drift into each area comfortably linking and knitting the overall system together while the lone striker pins the system by maintaining a high position and creating space in which the others can play.

Here you can get a better idea of the general movement that I am trying to mechanise into the system. On the left hand side of the pitch Gareth Bale should be free to cut inside using his pace and power to break through the defence. Since Bale is vacating the left side of the pitch Assou Ekotto needs to be free to push up the flank hugging the touchline as he goes. The left central midfielder is Modric who of course needs to be allowed to display his creative instinct whilst connecting with both Bale and Assou Ekotto. On the right side of the pitch Lennon will stretch the play by hugging the touchline and pushing right up the pitch. Kyle Walker will also push up the field but to stop the two from occupying the same space on the pitch Walker will be free to cut inside when he attacks providing another angle of attack for the team to take advantage of. The right central midfielder Parker is the most static player in the system sitting slightly deeper but still being able to connect with Walker and more tenuously Lennon.

HOW DOES IT WORK?

Here we have an example of play that has been built up on the left of the pitch and Gareth Bale in possession is cutting in from the left touchline leaving the space for Assou Ekotto space to push into. Van Der Vaart in the AM position has shuttled across from the centre to provide a connection with Bale. As the ball moves through Van Der Vaart to Adebayor and finally finds its way back to Bale as the cuts through the defence. It’s also interesting to note that as the play starts Modric is available in space to provide a passing option and defensive cover.

This time play is on the right of the pitch as Parker feeds Lennon who proceeds to stretch the play by attacking down the right of the pitch. As he does both Parker and Van Der Vaart move over towards the right hand side of the pitch to offer both passing and cover connections. The deeper threat comes from Walker pushing forward but coming in off the wing to the channel again giving us options to shift the angle of the pitch.

Now a more complete picture of how the two different setups work as one. As the ball is shifted infield to Modric in the centre he has three immediate passing options with Van Der Vaart and Parker in their conventional positions but Bale having come right in off the left flank pulling defenders with him and emptying the space for the left back to move into. On the opposite side of the pitch you can see that Lennon is still stretching the play on the right flank giving us a variety of options.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS

It’s common for FM players to try to build symmetrical systems having the notion of the importance of balance drummed into them by football on T.V. There is nothing at all wrong with that but I hope I have shown a few of you the advantages of thinking in terms of connecting your players in such a way that you maximise their talents. There is absolutely nothing to say that you have to mirror instructions across the pitch in order to maintain a balance to your tactic and side. In this perhaps there is something to be learnt from Harry Redknapp.

You will find more of Lee’s work at Football Manager Analysis – his blog about Football Manager Tactics. It’s an excellent read and one every budding FM tactician should subscribe to. You can also follow Lee on Twitter @FMAnalysis

But how important are these personal and coaching attributes in determining how the A.I. teams will perform? What would happen if we were to take one of the game’s greatest A.I. managers and put him in charge of a lowly ranked club?

With these questions in mind I set up the following small experiment… to remove Sir Alex Ferguson from the comfort of his Old Trafford office and to put him in charge of Accrington Stanley, a club synonymous with anonymity and one expected to struggle to stay in the football league.

“Accrington Stanley, who are they?…”

“Exactly!”

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To set up the experiment conditions I turned to the Football Manager Editor – whilst my Sir Alex Ferguson retained all of the main attribute scores, I did have to make some small concessions.

Firstly, Fergie starts the game at the ripe old age of 69 and this leads to him retiring after a season or two – so that I could measure his performance as Accrington manager over a sensible period of time I was forced to turn back time, giving Ferguson back the very best years of his life.

Next I had to eradicate the massive reputation that Ferguson had deservedly amassed over the past 30 years or more – after all, the project would be pointless if, after a few weeks in League Two, he was offered a lucrative contract at a big name side!

Therefore my Sir Alex starts this experiment with a “Home Reputation” of 85 (out of 200) and a “World Reputation” of 30. I also went about removing the legendary status the Scot enjoyed at Manchester United, Aberdeen and East Stirlingshire.

Finally, I set about awarding Fergie the same terms and conditions that his predecessor at Accrington had enjoyed – a £1200 per week one year rolling contract. A quick look at Stanley’s finances will tell you that the club can’t afford the massive £80,000 a week he was on at Manchester United!

But, it seemed somewhat churlish to rescind Fergie’s knighthood – so he will remain Sir Alex Ferguson throughout the experiment.

THE CONTROL

In order to effectively measure my Sir Alex’s progress I needed a control – that is a game run for the same time period but with an unaltered database, this allows us to compare the fortunes of Accrington Stanley with and without Ferguson at the helm.

This is how the control game played out over twenty seasons:

In 2012 Accrington Stanley narrowly avoided relegation from League Two, finishing twenty first in the division – a year later, however, they dropped out of the Football League as they ended the season in twenty third position.

The club then spent five years in the Blue Square Premier League before gaining promotion back into League Two at the end of the 2017/18 season.

Accrington spent the next three years in League Two finishing 15th, 17th and 14th respectively before suffering the ignominy of relegation once again in 2022 – on this occasion the team finished rock bottom.

It would take Stanley seven years of Conference football before they could reclaim their place amongst the ninety-two league clubs, going up as Champions in 2029. The momentum stayed with the team as they finished 6th and 2nd over the final two seasons.

THE EXPERIMENT

In our experiment Sir Alex Ferguson had a somewhat slow start to his career with Accrington Stanley, ending the 2011/12 season in fifteenth position. There was steady improvement in the following year as the team finished two places higher before they finally clinched promotion in 2014 by finishing third.

Sir Alex oversaw two turbulent seasons in League One, in 2015 Accrington avoided the drop by a single point but found themselves unable to repeat this feat in 2016 when they ended the campaign in twenty second place and were relegated.

The manager’s class shone through, however, as the side were instantly promoted back into League One in 2017 – where they remained for another eight years before beating Crystal Palace 1-0 in the play off final to lift themselves into England’s second tier of football.

Fergie then set about establishing his team in the Championship, between 2026 and 2030 Accrington Stanley finished 19th, 11th, 9th, 9th and 10th respectively. Then, in 2031 (the final year of our experiment) came Sir Alex’s finest achievement – promotion to the Premier League, beating Ipswich 5-3 on aggregate in the play-off semi-finals before hammering Everton 3-0 at Wembley.

As we can see from the graph above, Accrington Stanley faired considerably better under the stewardship of the experiment’s Sir Alex Ferguson than they did in our control game – achieving four promotions to take a seat at the top table of English Football. What makes this accomplishment even more remarkable is that Sir Alex spent a grand total of £2,429,700 on transfers and even made a net profit of £8,266,300 on all dealings!

Proof then the personal and coaching attributes of the A.I. managers can make a substantial difference to the success of the Football Manager clubs they are in charge of. What I find most surprising, however, is that Sir Alex spent all twenty years of the experiment at Accrington Stanley with no other club expressing an interest… now how could that be?

Those of you that are familiar with my previous articles on FM will know that I have written about the 4-4-2 tactic before in an attempt to show that the system can still be considered current in today’s age of 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1. This time around I am going to show that 4-4-2 still has a place on the tactical bookshelf of the contemporary FM player as a purely defensive setup.

Rather unsurprisingly the idea for this article came from an interview I heard by Jonathan Wilson. In the interview he talks of the defensive strengths of the 4-4-2 with the traditional two banks of four operating as a tight unit and two men in attack meaning that when the play transitions into attack you don’t have a lone striker isolated in an attempt to hold the ball up but rather a pair of strikers that can connect to force a chance or even a set piece in the opponents half. The argument will always exist and indeed is one that I have made myself that with two men in central midfield the 4-4-2 will always struggle to cope with the modern player ‘in the hole’, here however I hope to show that this floating midfielder is not necessarily the scourge of the 4-4-2.

THE SET-UP

For those of us that grew up watching football in the 90’s the above graphic is one that was synonymous with Match of the Day. The traditional English 4-4-2 with two banks of four spread across the pitch to provide width and defensive cover and two strikers – preferably one little one large – to offer attacking threat and options, this is the setup that is now considered outdated by most football journalists and pundits. Indeed any manager still playing the 4-4-2 is leaving himself open to ridicule and criticism for lack of tactical aptitude as soon results go against his team. As I am about to show however the rigid inflexible 4-4-2 still has a place in FM.

TWO BANKS OF FOUR

Setting up defensively the biggest immediate strength that we have is that with a back four and a deep lying four-man midfield there is very little space for the AI to exploit. By employing a deep line in defence and making sure the midfield drop back as well we are immediately nullifying the threat posed by the floating No.10 than operates in between the lines by squeezing the space and denying him room in which to work.

Here we see the perfect example. The defence is forming a line spread across the pitch with very little space in between the players, which the AI can use for a through ball to a quick striker. Even when the left centreback steps out of the line to engage the forward in possession of the ball the connection between right centreback and leftback remains strong. The midfield is also formed up in a line although with the centre situated deeper allowing extra cover for the centrebacks whilst the wide midfielders retain a higher position to engage the opposition wingers or attacking fullbacks. It’s clear to see that the strong connections both in the centre and out wide make it extremely difficult for the AI to break our defence down via quick incisive through balls limiting them to long shots or crosses thrown in from wide areas.

This time we are playing against Rome and their agile skilful front three. Again the familiar characteristics are in place with the defined defensive line facing up tightly to the attacking three of the AI. This time however you can see that one of our deep central midfielders has stepped out to engage Taddei in possession of the ball. In doing so our midfielder has further limited Roma’s passing options. There is no easy through pass to neither the central striker nor the left winger due to the positioning of our players. The obvious pass is slipped through to the right winger but again the positioning of our left back and left midfielder means that he will be quickly squeezed and possession will be turned over.

In defence then the deep 4-4-2 certainly has its strengths. Let’s be honest though the vast majority of FM players are not interested in purely defensive setups (myself excluded) and so there has to be some attacking advantage to the system.

LINKS IN ATTACK

With one striker you run the risk of being put under constant pressure as he struggles to hold the ball up when vastly outnumbered as the play transitions from defence to attack. With two strikers playing close together in the 4-4-2 though you are always giving yourself a chance in the attacking phase.

Here we have a perfect example of the two strikers working in tandem to create space and move the play into the oppositions half. As the ball is cycled from defence one of our deep midfielders (Gallopa) is about to take possession. Our left striker (Crespo) will move into the wide channels to receive the pass thus emptying the space in the centre of defenders and allowing our right striker (Giovinco) to move forward and provide a connection that the two strikers can utilise to build the attack. If you are using this system then consider what types of strikers complement one another best and indeed with the TC, which predefined roles you can select for the best possible outcome.

Here you can see that we have had to defend deep to withstand a prolonged period of pressure from the AI. Despite the extremely deep defence and midfield we still maintain two attackers in close contact albeit with Giovinco sitting slightly deeper than Crespo. When the Milan attack eventually breaks we are in position to take advantage of the fact they have pressed so high up against our defence and midfield. The ball is immediately cycled by Gobbi to Crespo who again moves into the wide channel emptying the central zone of defensive players. Giovinco is able to quickly move into a connecting position and we have the basis of an attack from a position of extreme defensive vulnerability.

The 4-4-2 then for me is a system that is far from dead within football and certainly from within FM. It may be that we simply have to approach the system differently with a different idea of what we are looking to achieve from its use. For the purposes of this article I played 10 competitive matches in Serie A with Parma and I leave them undefeated in second place having conceded only three goals (two corners and a penalty). There is no doubt that this is not a system that allows you to reproduce the attacking verve of Barcelona but for me being able to sit and watch a system that I have designed to operate defensively gives me as much if not more satisfaction as watching a player reach 120 short passes in a match. The FM player today shouldn’t be afraid to compromise on style if it can lead to a greater degree of substance on the pitch.

You will find more of Lee’s work at Football Manager Analysis – his blog about Football Manager Tactics. It’s an excellent read and one every budding FM tactician should subscribe to. You can also follow Lee on Twitter @FMAnalysis